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BMJ Open 3:e003219 doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003219
  • Epidemiology
    • Research

Prevalence and incidence rates of autism in the UK: time trend from 2004–2010 in children aged 8 years

  1. Dean MacLaughlin2
  1. 1General and Adolescent Paediatric Unit, UCL Institute of Child Health, London, UK
  2. 2Boston Collaborative Drug Surveillance Program, Boston University School of Medicine, Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
  1. Correspondence to Professor Hershel Jick; hjick{at}bu.edu
  • Received 13 May 2013
  • Revised 27 August 2013
  • Accepted 28 August 2013
  • Published 16 October 2013

Abstract

Objectives To update UK studies begun in the early 1990s on the annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism in children; undertaken in response to a March 2012 press release, widely covered by the media, from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) reporting that the autism prevalence rate in 2008 in 8-year-old US children was 1 in 88, a 78% increase from a CDC estimate in 2004. This finding suggested a continuation of the dramatic increase in children diagnosed as autistic, which occurred in the 1990s.

Design Population study using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD).

Methods Annual autism prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 8 years in 2004–2010 by dividing the number diagnosed as autistic in each or any previous year by the number of children active in the study population that year. We also calculated annual incidence rates for children aged 2–8 years, by dividing the number newly diagnosed in 2004–2010 by the same denominators.

Results Annual prevalence rates for each year were steady at approximately 3.8/1000 boys and 0.8/1000 girls. Annual incidence rates each year were also steady at about 1.2/1000 boys and 0.2/1000 girls.

Conclusions Following a fivefold increase in the annual incidence rates of autism during the 1990s in the UK, the incidence and prevalence rates in 8-year-old children reached a plateau in the early 2000s and remained steady through 2010. Whether prevalence rates have increased from the early 2000s in the USA remains uncertain.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/

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